Perceived Inflation Persistence

This article constructs and estimates a measure called perceived inflation persistence that can be used to determine if professional forecasters’ inflation forecasts indicate there has been a change in inflation persistence. This measure is built via the implied autocorrelation function that follows from the estimates obtained using a forecaster-specific state-space model. Findings indicate that U.S. perceived inflation persistence has changed since the mid-1990s with more consensus among forecasters at lower levels of persistence. When compared to the autocorrelation function for actual inflation, forecasters typically react less to shocks to inflation than the actual inflation data would suggest.     

Strong law of large numbers and complete convergence for non-identically distributed WOD random variables

In this paper, we establish the strong law of large numbers and complete convergence for non-identically distributed WOD random variables. We derive some new inequalities of Fuk–Nagaev type for the sums of non-identically distributed WD random variables. All these results further extend and refine previous ones.     

Meningococcal serogroup B outbreak response University of Wisconsin-Madison

A meningococcal serogroup B (MenB) outbreak at a large public university prompted an emergency response to immunize undergraduates. Objective: To report on a successful meningococcal serogroup B (MenB) vaccine clinic response at a large public university. Methods: We assembled the team leaders to write this case report. Results: Activation of the emergency plan and points of dispensing required cooperation of many units on campus under the leadership of university health officials with support from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, state division of public health and the city-county health department. Significant efforts to provide consistent messages to students and parents regarding the outbreak and the availability of the MenB vaccines were made. Volunteers were recruited to staff the clinics alongside university healthcare providers. Over 22,000 doses of vaccine were administered. Conclusion: We report our experience and lessons learned which may be helpful to universities in preventing and responding to disease outbreaks.     

文化认知中定向思维模式的建构与解构——以中国少数民族文化范式为研究视阈

定向思维模式的建构与解构实际上反映出认知结构的二重性特征，两者在文化认知活动中可互为挹注共存于对立统一关系里。因此，对中国少数民族文化范式的研究，不仅要重视建构之功能催生的符号化文化构成，还应关注解构之功能显现的非常见的文化元素。同时，只有弄清楚定向思维模式的建构与解构在文化认知中的意涵，才能明确定向思维模式的“趋向”和“专注”特点以及“惰化”和“孤立”倾向，从而为牵及民族文化事项的认知固化与迁移提供理论工具并用以指导多元文化实践。     

An improved cluster two-stage randomized response model

In this paper, Abdelfatah and Mazloum's (2015) two-stage randomized response model is extended to unequal probability sampling and stratified unequal probability sampling, both with and without replacement. The extended models result in more efficient estimators than Lee et al.'s (2014) estimators of the proportion of the population having a sensitive attribute.     

管辂易学研究——兼论术数学的思维方式

易学可以分为两部分:理论的层面和术数的层面。学界以往对易学的术数层面关注较少，一是缘于学者对“术数”的偏见，二是术数学自身缺少系统性反思的理论大师。三国时的管辂便是试图对术数学进行理论说明的人。牟宗三曾经藉由管辂来研究中国传统的一类知识系统，但尚有许多内容待发掘。管辂说“善易者不论《易》”，这是对术数易地位的辩护，同时也是对经学易和玄学易的回应。这种反对，不能从象数和义理对立的角度去理解，而应从文本和实践的区别来认识。管辂认为，术数的根本在于“神”，这个神不是玄学或思辨意义上的“玄之又玄”，而是实践意义中的通感和知几能力，它奠基于人自身的命限和气质中。但对于神的体悟又不能仅仅等同于“直觉”和“神秘主义”，因为它对于表现的通孔———象，以及工夫论基础，都有明确的要求。在这里，我们看到了不隶属于理性、直觉或神秘主义的一种独特思维方式。     

升平之境:从《意大利游记》看康有为欧亚文明论

本文以康有为完成于1904年底的《意大利游记》为说明性个案，试图呈现其欧亚文明论的基本面貌。文章将文本与这位“先时之人物”所处的时代相联系，勾勒出康氏的旅欧行程、意大利考察和文明叙述的轮廓，梳理了康氏在其“异域志”中表达的有关升平一统（帝国）、中西文明之异、文明关联互动等看法。文章指出，《意大利游记》是古代华文异域志的近代遗响，而康有为借之表达的看法，实构成一种“文明-现代性”主张。本文为作者所写有关法国社会学年鉴派文明与文明研究构想之论文的续篇。文章指出，康有为对文明的界定与其同龄人涂尔干的看法有诸多相通之处，但也有不同点：康氏与涂氏都将现实发生的文明界定为“超社会现象”，视其为国族与世界之间的中间范畴，但相比于从结构观点看文明的涂尔干，康氏在考察文明的存在方式时更关注其历史的治乱轮替动态，也更为重视其政体实现形式。文章最后，作者思考了20世纪康氏欧亚文明论的遭际，指出相比“国族营造”之社会科学，康有为融通“我他”文明的叙述依旧有其启迪。     

大工程文化育工程人的实践探索

大工程文化是河北工程大学基于新时代工程教育实践和学校发展实际，凝练升华而成的大学文化系统，其“十一大”脉系，在学校育人实践中发挥了重要作用，为落实立德树人根本任务提供了精神动力。     

Treatment Choice With Trial Data: Statistical Decision Theory Should Supplant Hypothesis Testing

Abstract

A central objective of empirical research on treatment response is to inform treatment choice. Unfortunately, researchers commonly use concepts of statistical inference whose foundations are distant from the problem of treatment choice. It has been particularly common to use hypothesis tests to compare treatments. Wald’s development of statistical decision theory provides a coherent frequentist framework for use of sample data on treatment response to make treatment decisions. A body of recent research applies statistical decision theory to characterize uniformly satisfactory treatment choices, in the sense of maximum loss relative to optimal decisions (also known as maximum regret). This article describes the basic ideas and findings, which provide an appealing practical alternative to use of hypothesis tests. For simplicity, the article focuses on medical treatment with evidence from classical randomized clinical trials. The ideas apply generally, encompassing use of observational data and treatment choice in nonmedical contexts.